人民币疲软源于美国加息预期

美联储如预期进行近十年来的首次加息，中国汇市和债市周四波澜不惊。然而新一轮美国升息周期的开启给人民币汇率和火爆的债券市场都带来压力。
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' O! e1 O2 @4 b& R- R　　周四人民币中间价连续第九天调降，触及近四年半以来最低水平。人民币即期开盘跳空低开，兑美元连续第十天下跌，创下2007年4月以来最长记录，收报6.4837；离岸人民币则逆转此前涨势而走跌，目前报6.5536。中国债市二级市场上，长端债券收益率出现了小幅下行。

　　新华社在评论文章中写道，过去两周人民币贬值只是由预期美联储加息而引发的市场现象。鉴于外汇储备充足，经济强劲，中国有大量资源可用于维持金融稳定。
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; d  e% Y& n0 f; n+ b: b$ M6 L! C　　文章称，中国经济基本面强劲将阻止人民币下跌过猛，部分市场人士担忧美国经济复苏将造成资本流出新兴市场经济体，这是不正确的。中国将呈现各种商业良机。
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　　注：离岸人民币月至今下跌2.2%。
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1 N/ G7 t& g3 O: \! K5 ]　　美国结束长期超低利率时代，适逢中国经济增速降至25年来最弱时期。中国央行连续降准、降息，试图放宽流动性，刺激增长。包括中信证券[-0.94% 资金 研报]固收研究首席分析师明明在内的数位市场人士表示，美国加息后人民币贬值压力及资本外流压力将持续存在，将削弱中国货币政策的宽松效果。

# y6 |0 l8 ?: `7 f5 T　　“在资本流出、外汇贬值的状况下，年底的流动性仍然将或有一定的波动，” 中信证券固收研究首席分析师明明在点评中称。他认为，中国央行有可能再次降低存款准备金，但带来的流动性不足以让中国10年期国债收益率停留在3%以下。
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8 m& W2 q' A# F; c　　新华社原文
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, g3 ~9 f: B0 F& j  H: |( Y# N) B" i, u　　Commentary: China can well cope with U.S. rate hike

　　Dec. 17, 2015 (Xinhua) -- The recent U.S. rate rise has caused worry about its impact on developing countries. With growing strength, China could cope with it with a relatively easy mind.
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　　With abundant forex reserves and a strong economy, China has lots of resources to use to maintain financial stability.

: j" n! b: T: i' }　　The underlying strength of the Chinese economy will stop the yuan from falling too far. The depreciation of the last two weeks was only a market phenomenon spawned by expectations of the rate hike.
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　　Some worry that a recovery in the U.S. will suck money out of emerging economies. This is not true.
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; e5 i5 a9 E' t+ \' I( Q% V4 R% n+ c- [　　Cross-border money seeks higher yields, either higher interest rates from financial instruments or bigger returns from investment in the real economy. Narrowing the interest rate gap will not blemish the appeal of emerging economies because there are so many more opportunities to make money there these days.

" P* z# v4 d0 M6 k0 Q/ l　　China, for instance, has transformed itself from a factory of cheap plastic gimcrack to a maker of high-speed trains, satellites and supercomputers.

　　With innovation and consumption propelling the country forward, a smorgasbord of new opportunities to make money will present itself.
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